2011年8月31日 星期三

8月30日 - 8月結算!

8月結算, 套倉尾市比人挾足300點.
下月期指低水百鬆點, D SHORT CALL仲明顯低IV, 擺明想轉倉都做唔到.
好, 服輸!!!
#590 六福 $39.5 走左.
#3339 龍工 ao追左.

又研究下呢排d工具獲利比率. (7,8月)

工具Periodearn %
stockday trade50%
stock2-3 days70%
stockover 1 week10%
   
futureday trade70%
future2-3 days50%
futureover 1 week30%
   
option1 month80%
option2 month80%


先講股票, 概率上愈渣得長, 輸既機會愈大.
一黎市場成交量陰趺, 一浪低於一浪格局, 洗倉潮一個板塊到另一板塊.
反而趁股價急趺博強勢股反彈一個小型反彈浪, 2至3日完成6-8%反彈食胡玩法最
適合現市況, 再加上一個狗股倉博平均成本法買到轉角市, 長短棍倉形成.
第2隻狗股今個星期出手, 都好多選擇下.

再講期指, 自身暫未夠定力食一個中型浪(over1000pts), 所以基本上100-400點波幅食胡位岩
自己多d, 期指一渣多過1 weeks, 個市況一係極大波幅, 2係自己又衰陷陣營打法.
根本都幾難搵食.

option經歷08一役, 心理上及技巧上暫時handle得幾好, leverage level 同 exit plan 都做得比較
數理化同數據化.

conclusion: 一日成交唔大番到800億(升市計), 今日939做placement扣番220億, 都係700億唔及.
股票短炒都係高難度!

2011年8月30日 星期二

8月29日 - 結算前夕

今日又過左澳門, 不過都知道個市挾成300點, 個倉又嬴變輸了.
策略上想推高做套SHORT19400P OR 19600P, 自己又睇唔到盤, 19400P得6X點.
做一套又唔係好對沖到, 所以最後都係CXXL左冇落盤.
睇下聽日比人再挾幾多點先...

呢2日係生活中發現小現象
第一個就係通街派既recruit or 招職, 80%以上都係零售業,
不論服裝, 珠寶, 飲食, 美容, 全部搶人搶得好犀利, 傳統佔最多比重的
trading, merchandising得寮寮幾頁. 零售股強勢畢現.
下一水應該到收租股發威.
第2個係今日過澳門近暑假期前, 第一次即班船爆晒,  睇黎d人暑期完結前博殺.
再過一排又黃金週, 賭股真係強勢得有原因.

現家市況追逐最強勢板塊為上策.

#493出業績, #590升番7%.. 睇埋聽日表現走唔走貨先.

2011年8月27日 星期六

8月25-26日 - 組合拳!

基本上呢2日都係趁高沽期指, 700終於再開倉, 大市星期5尾市再收DAY LOW等
BERNANKE出聲言, 呢排D市況真係唔可以一面倒, 要攻中有守, 守中有攻的組合拳先係王道.
BUY AND HOLD 價值投資係我既狗股倉的王王道...哈哈!
所以700開倉後, 跟手SC番19200P 118點沽番, 呢套倉渣到30號算了.
計一計數先.


HSF SettlementShort HsfSC 19200PUnitProfit/Loss
Case 1: =1920050011850$30,900
Case 2: =19700011850$5,900
Case 3: =20000-30011850-$9,100
Case 4: =20400-70011850-$29,100


BERNANKE又拖住黎玩, 好似黃子華TALK SHOW話"呢個消息已經消化晒".
好既, 慢慢拖個IV冇咁高.

Quote
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced no new economic stimulus measures during his speech at a conference of central bank governors in Wyoming, but left open the possibility of more action by the Fed if another downturn looks likely. Keith Crane has more.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told a gathering of central bankers from around the globe that the US economy's recovery has been much less robust than expected.
But Bernanke stopped short of signaling further monetary policy action, such as stimulus measures, to bolster the ailing economy.
And, he spoke optimistically about the long-term prospects for the economy.
The Commerce Department said Friday, Gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 1 percent, as restocking by businesses and growth in exports proved less rapid than initially estimated.
The rate of growth between April and June was cut from the government's first reading of 1.3 percent and followed a measly pace of just 0.4 percent in the first three months of the year.
This means the economy grew only 0.7 percent in the first half of 2011. Nonetheless, and despite a sharp fall in consumer confidence this month, economists do not believe the economy will fall back into another recession.
Many investors were disappointed that the Fed chairman didn't offer steps to shore up the fragile economic recovery. Bernanke says the extra time is needed for a fuller discussion of the "range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus."
He also notes the Federal Reserve will consider what more it could do to fight high unemployment.
Bernanke reveals the central bank's policy panel would meet for two days in September instead of the usual one to discuss what more may need to be done.
(Source: cntv.cn)
unquote
趁金價回落買入零售股龍頭 #590六福 $36.3

2011年8月24日 星期三

8月24日

今日不在公司, 開市後主要遙控短炒食胡, 之後都冇咩時間睇市.
#67 $2.07s
#3800 $3.29s
#493 ao buy
#82 #1.12s

中投孖寶都係業績前沽出, 今日個市連高開都做唔到, 睇黎沽壓仲係好沉重.
#2628 穿20蚊, #1211 $14.x蚊, 雖然業績差, 呢d股價真係接近08價, buy and hold 一族
應該反思係呢d老千市, 究竟投資路向如何.
有幾多人低位買中#189,#999,#590 and buy and hold !???

#19000 第3次攻防戰好快出現, 淡軍隨時出動.

2011年8月23日 星期二

8月23日 - 處暑

以前曾經聽人八卦提過, 節氣日通常有機會轉勢..
當然呢D另類指示只屬參考性質, 今日剛好係處暑, 大市急升400點.
破左上次裂口頂560個位, 不過又算唔算補埋裂口呢?

本來今日諗住抖下唔做TRADE,
不過即市買左中投孖寶 #3800 保利 $3.1 同 #67 旭光 #1.94.
聽日岩位食埋胡袋落袋先, 維持6%-10% profit 要走貨策略

19000位試底2次, 下次再穿就真係真穿向下了!
雖然今日變左好倉友, 始終我仲係一個淡友..